With Memorial Day weekend beginning, let's spend a moment in thought of the 5 banks that have fallen to the FDIC this week.
Sunwest Bank of Las Vegas, Nv. At 9th on the list, it may only have been a matter of time for this bank that had already faced an enforcement action.
Granite Community Bank of Granite Bay, Ca. Ranked 128th of 7398 in the system still had a fairly high 27% chance according to the model.
Bank of Florida - Tampa of the obvious location.
Bank of Florida - Southeast of Naples, Fla.
Bank of Florida - Southwest of Fort Lauderdale, Fl.
The Bank of Florida, technically 3 separate banks, were all under threat of foreclosure. Southwest and Tampa were on the list at 5th and 20th on the list respectively. Southeast was just out of the top 25 at 27th on the list.
In two weeks 4 of the top 25 banks have been foreclosed upon and 4 of the 6 foreclosures have been in Florida. This got me wondering what states are most at risk? Using the Top 100 (not shown), there are 14 Florida-based banks. But the state leader appears to be Georgia with 15. Washington State follows with 9.
Added: Interestingly, the Wall Street Journal just wrote an article about contagion problems in Washington State.
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Second predictions
Took the opportunity to update the data for the most recent quarter. The weights are the same as in the prior post but the list has changed noticeably. Also updated the output file to include bank locations.
1. FIRST NATIONAL BANK ROSEDALE MS
2. ARCOLA HOMESTEAD SAVINGS BANK ARCOLA IL
3. PISGAH COMMUNITY BANK ASHEVILLE NC
4. PINEHURST BANK SAINT PAUL MN
5. BANK OF FLORIDA - SOUTHWEST NAPLES FL
6. MICHIGAN COMMERCE BANK ANN ARBOR MI
7. CENTRAL PACIFIC BANK HONOLULU HI
8. SOUTHERN COMMERCE BANK TAMPA FL
9. SUN WEST BANK LAS VEGAS NV
10. SUNBANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION PHOENIX AZ
11. PENINSULA BANK ENGLEWOOD FL
12. CRESCENT BANK AND TRUST COMPANY JASPER GA
13. SHOREBANK CHICAGO IL
14. HIGH DESERT STATE BANK ALBUQUERQUE NM
15. PREMIER BANK JEFFERSON CITY MO
16. SUNRISE BANK OF ARIZONA PHOENIX AZ
17. METROBANK OF DADE COUNTY MIAMI FL
18. RAVENSWOOD BANK CHICAGO IL
19. FIRST SOUND BANK SEATTLE WA
20. BANK OF FLORIDA - TAMPA BAY TAMPA FL
21. WASHINGTON FIRST INTERNATIONAL BANK SEATTLE WA
22. BLUE RIDGE SAVINGS BANK, INC ASHEVILLE NC
23. MCINTOSH STATE BANK JACKSON GA
24. USA BANK PORTCHESTER NY
25. HAVEN TRUST BANK FLORIDA PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL
With over 7000 banks regulated by the FDIC, it would not take much for the Top 25 to shift significantly as new information comes out. Recently foreclosed up Pinehurst, previously 41st on the list, is now 4th.
Disclaimer:
1. FIRST NATIONAL BANK ROSEDALE MS
2. ARCOLA HOMESTEAD SAVINGS BANK ARCOLA IL
3. PISGAH COMMUNITY BANK ASHEVILLE NC
4. PINEHURST BANK SAINT PAUL MN
5. BANK OF FLORIDA - SOUTHWEST NAPLES FL
6. MICHIGAN COMMERCE BANK ANN ARBOR MI
7. CENTRAL PACIFIC BANK HONOLULU HI
8. SOUTHERN COMMERCE BANK TAMPA FL
9. SUN WEST BANK LAS VEGAS NV
10. SUNBANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION PHOENIX AZ
11. PENINSULA BANK ENGLEWOOD FL
12. CRESCENT BANK AND TRUST COMPANY JASPER GA
13. SHOREBANK CHICAGO IL
14. HIGH DESERT STATE BANK ALBUQUERQUE NM
15. PREMIER BANK JEFFERSON CITY MO
16. SUNRISE BANK OF ARIZONA PHOENIX AZ
17. METROBANK OF DADE COUNTY MIAMI FL
18. RAVENSWOOD BANK CHICAGO IL
19. FIRST SOUND BANK SEATTLE WA
20. BANK OF FLORIDA - TAMPA BAY TAMPA FL
21. WASHINGTON FIRST INTERNATIONAL BANK SEATTLE WA
22. BLUE RIDGE SAVINGS BANK, INC ASHEVILLE NC
23. MCINTOSH STATE BANK JACKSON GA
24. USA BANK PORTCHESTER NY
25. HAVEN TRUST BANK FLORIDA PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL
With over 7000 banks regulated by the FDIC, it would not take much for the Top 25 to shift significantly as new information comes out. Recently foreclosed up Pinehurst, previously 41st on the list, is now 4th.
Disclaimer:
The content of this web site is for general information purposes only and does not constitute advice. The author tries to provide content that is true and accurate as of the date of writing; however, we give no assurance or warranty regarding the accuracy, timeliness, or applicability of any of the contents. Visitors should not act upon content or information without first seeking appropriate professional advice.
The author accepts no responsibility for and excludes all liability in connection with browsing this Web site, use of information or downloading any materials from it, including but not limited to any liability for errors, inaccuracies, omissions, or misleading or defamatory statements. The information at this Web site might include opinions or views which, unless expressly stated otherwise, are not necessarily those of the author.
All content and information might be changed or updated without notice.First predictions of default
I have been working on some research in the area of foreclosure predictions. The results have been quite strong and I'm now thinking about releasing some it on a limited basis. A more detailed list may be available upon request.
The following 25 banks are predicted to be most likely to fail based on end of 2009 data:
1. The Royal Palm Bank of Florida
2. ISN BANK
3. ALL AMERICAN BANK
4. SAEHAN BANK
5. FIRST SOUND BANK
6. HIGH DESERT STATE BANK
7. BAYTREE NATIONAL BANK & TRUST CO.
8. SUN WEST BANK
9. BANK OF FLORIDA - SOUTHWEST
10. SUNBANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
11. CRESCENT BANK AND TRUST COMPANY
12. HAVEN TRUST BANK FLORIDA
13. STERLING SAVINGS BANK
14. NEVADA SECURITY BANK
15. BLUE RIDGE SAVINGS BANK, INC
16. NEXITY BANK
17. PROFESSIONAL BUSINESS BANK
18. VENTURA COUNTY BUSINESS BANK
19. BANK OF COMMERCE, THE
20. COMMUNITYSOUTH BANK AND TRUST
21. TOWN NORTH BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
22. COASTAL COMMUNITY BANK
23. PREMIER BANK
24. FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF OLATHE, THE
25. WESTBRIDGE BANK & TRUST COMPANY
The FDIC does not update their lists of foreclosed banks until Monday. Last Friday however, Pinehurst Bank, of Saint Paul, Mn. was foreclosed. Pinehurst is the 41st bank on the list and had a 35.3% chance according to the model.
Disclaimer:
The following 25 banks are predicted to be most likely to fail based on end of 2009 data:
1. The Royal Palm Bank of Florida
2. ISN BANK
3. ALL AMERICAN BANK
4. SAEHAN BANK
5. FIRST SOUND BANK
6. HIGH DESERT STATE BANK
7. BAYTREE NATIONAL BANK & TRUST CO.
8. SUN WEST BANK
9. BANK OF FLORIDA - SOUTHWEST
10. SUNBANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
11. CRESCENT BANK AND TRUST COMPANY
12. HAVEN TRUST BANK FLORIDA
13. STERLING SAVINGS BANK
14. NEVADA SECURITY BANK
15. BLUE RIDGE SAVINGS BANK, INC
16. NEXITY BANK
17. PROFESSIONAL BUSINESS BANK
18. VENTURA COUNTY BUSINESS BANK
19. BANK OF COMMERCE, THE
20. COMMUNITYSOUTH BANK AND TRUST
21. TOWN NORTH BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
22. COASTAL COMMUNITY BANK
23. PREMIER BANK
24. FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF OLATHE, THE
25. WESTBRIDGE BANK & TRUST COMPANY
The FDIC does not update their lists of foreclosed banks until Monday. Last Friday however, Pinehurst Bank, of Saint Paul, Mn. was foreclosed. Pinehurst is the 41st bank on the list and had a 35.3% chance according to the model.
Disclaimer:
The content of this web site is for general information purposes only and does not constitute advice. The author tries to provide content that is true and accurate as of the date of writing; however, we give no assurance or warranty regarding the accuracy, timeliness, or applicability of any of the contents. Visitors should not act upon content or information without first seeking appropriate professional advice.
The author accepts no responsibility for and excludes all liability in connection with browsing this Web site, use of information or downloading any materials from it, including but not limited to any liability for errors, inaccuracies, omissions, or misleading or defamatory statements. The information at this Web site might include opinions or views which, unless expressly stated otherwise, are not necessarily those of the author.
All content and information might be changed or updated without notice.
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