First predictions of default

I have been working on some research in the area of foreclosure predictions. The results have been quite strong and I'm now thinking about releasing some it on a limited basis. A more detailed list may be available upon request.

The following 25 banks are predicted to be most likely to fail based on end of 2009 data:

1. The Royal Palm Bank of Florida
2. ISN BANK
3. ALL AMERICAN BANK
4. SAEHAN BANK
5. FIRST SOUND BANK
6. HIGH DESERT STATE BANK
7. BAYTREE NATIONAL BANK & TRUST CO.
8. SUN WEST BANK
9. BANK OF FLORIDA - SOUTHWEST
10. SUNBANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
11. CRESCENT BANK AND TRUST COMPANY
12. HAVEN TRUST BANK FLORIDA
13. STERLING SAVINGS BANK
14. NEVADA SECURITY BANK
15. BLUE RIDGE SAVINGS BANK, INC
16. NEXITY BANK
17. PROFESSIONAL BUSINESS BANK
18. VENTURA COUNTY BUSINESS BANK
19. BANK OF COMMERCE, THE
20. COMMUNITYSOUTH BANK AND TRUST
21. TOWN NORTH BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
22. COASTAL COMMUNITY BANK
23. PREMIER BANK
24. FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF OLATHE, THE
25. WESTBRIDGE BANK & TRUST COMPANY

The FDIC does not update their lists of foreclosed banks until Monday. Last Friday however, Pinehurst Bank, of Saint Paul, Mn. was foreclosed. Pinehurst is the 41st bank on the list and had a 35.3% chance according to the model.

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